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5-15-2022 Oregon Facebook Primary

May 15, 2022

The Slog is at an End

The 2022 primary election started on November 30, 2020, when 2016 GOP gubernatorial nominee Dr. Bud Pierce announced that he would run for Governor once more. I have tracked the largest field of Republican candidates in history since April 2021 using methods I've used since 2015, and even I am having difficulty making a prediction about the outcome. Follow the social media history and the money for the 2022 Oregon elections.

The Race for Governor

Republicans

The Candidates

Raymond Baldwin
Bridget Barton, has served on three appointed local government boards in Clackamas County
Commissioner Court Boice
David Burch
Former House Republican Leader Christine Drazan
Business Oregon Commissioner Jessica Gomez
Nick Hess
Tim McCloud
Mayor Kerry McQuisten
Brandon Merritt, Deschutes GOP Executive Committee Member
Dr. Bud Pierce, 2016 nominee
John Presco
Mayor Stan Pulliam
Amber Richardson
Bill Sizemore
Stefan Strek
Superintendent Marc Thielman
Rep. Bob Tiernan, former Oregon Republican Party Chair

Total Facebook Followers

Winner: Dr. Bud Pierce, the only GOP candidate with more than 20,000 Facebook followers.

Total Facebook Growth

Winner: Mayor Kerry McQuisten, the only candidate with more than 10,000 net change in Facebook followers.

Monthly Facebook Growth

Patterns: Highest average regular net changes in Facebook likes were observed for Barton, Rep. Drazan, Mayor McQuisten, Mayor Pulliam, and Superintendent Thielman.

Average Facebook Growth

Winner: Mayor Kerry McQuisten.

Total Twitter Followers

Winner: Mayor Stan Pulliam.

Total Twitter Growth

Winner: Mayor Stan Pulliam.

Total Small Donations

Winner: Dr. Bud Pierce. Dr. Pierce is the only candidate who raised more than $100,000 in small donations by April 2022. He is followed by Mayor Stan Pulliam, Superintendent Marc Thielman, Mayor Kerry McQuisten, and former House Republican Leader Christine Drazan.

Small Donations Raised Over Time

The six candidates consistently raising small dollar donations better than the rest in the 19-candidate field are Dr. Pierce, Bridget Barton, Superintendent Thielman, Mayor McQuisten, Mayor Pulliam, and Rep. Drazan.

The Money Poll

An experiment to gauge voter interest in certain candidates reveals interesting (but notable unscientific) results. Assuming every candidate's small donation = $50, and dividing their total miscellaneous contributions by that number, this sample of likely GOP voters yields the following results:

Dr. Pierce 33.6%
Mayor Pulliam 25.9%
Superintendent Thielman 15.2%
McQuisten 10.2%
Barton 5.3%
Rep. Drazan 4.3%
Commissioner Gomez 2.4%
Rep. Tiernan 1.6%
Richardson 0.4%
Sizemore 0.3%
Hess 0.3%
Merritt 0.2%
McCloud 0.1%

Democrats

The Candidates

David Beem
Julian Bell
Wilson Bright
George Carrillo
Michael Cross
Ifeanyichukwu Diru
Councilor Peter Hall
Former Speaker Tina Kotek
Keisa Lanell Merchant
Treasurer Tobias Read
Patrick Starnes, former McKenzie School Board Member
Dave Stauffer
John Sweeney
Michael Trimble
Genevieve Wilson

Total Facebook Likes

Winner: George Carrillo.

Total Twitter Followers

Winner: Former State House Speaker Tina Kotek.

Small Donations: Total Raised

Winner: Tina Kotek. It comes as no surprise that Speaker Kotek has raised more in small donations than the rest of the Democratic field combined. However, the fact that she has failed to raise more than $100,000 at this point in time may signal a cooling in support from the base towards her candidacy.

Small Donations: Raised Over Time

Tina Kotek has been the top small dollar fundraiser since the beginning of her campaign.

The Money Poll

An experiment to gauge voter interest in certain candidates reveals interesting (but notable unscientific) results. Assuming every candidate's small donation = $50, and dividing their total miscellaneous contributions by that number, this sample of likely Democratic voters yields the following results:

Speaker Kotek 62.5%
Treasurer Read 27.4%
Starnes 8.9%
Carrillo 0.8%
Trimble 0.4%

The Republican US Senate Nomination

"You don't call Ghostbusters, you call Alex." - Actual quote, Senator Ron Wyden, June 1, 2016.

Why Just Republicans?

A Democratic challenger to incumbent US Senator Ron Wyden sent an email to all of the County GOP Chairs in Oregon last September urging them to support him because he is the, "the best choice for anyone who votes to replace Senator Wyden in 2022." Senator Wyden's claim to the Democratic nomination is a foregone conclusion to everyone other than this challenger, who failed to even set up a Facebook profile for his campaign.* Thus, attention was only paid to candidates in the Republican Primary.

Total Facebook Followers

Former McKenzie School Board Member Darin Harbick.

Total Facebook Growth

Winner: Darin Harbick.

Total Twitter Followers

Winner: Former Albany Human Relations Commissioner Jo Rae Perkins.

Total Twitter Growth

Winner: Prineville Mayor Jason Beebe.

Itemized Contributions

Winner: Darin Harbick. The FEC categorizes all donations over $200 as Itemized Contributions. Among the GOP Senate candidates who have raised funds, Darin Harbick raised more itemized contributions than all other candidates combined at $187,178.00.
Note: Senator Wyden raised $6,859,927.73 in Itemized Contributions.

Unitemized Contributions

Winner: Darin Harbick. The FEC categorizes all donations over $200 as Unitemized Contributions. Among the GOP Senate candidates who have raised funds, Darin Harbick also raised more unitemized contributions than all other candidates combined at $15,118.00.
Note: Senator Wyden raised $1,509,929.75 in Unitemized Contributions.

Congressional District 1

Total Facebook Likes

Winner: Rep. Suzanne Bonamici.

Money

Winner: Rep. Suzanne Bonamici. Rep. Bonamici's Democratic challenger has raised of $23,000 via loans and committee contributions, but other fundraising amounts are negligible. Murray has raised $0.

Congressional District 2

Total Facebook Likes

Republican Winner: Rep. Cliff Bentz.

Democratic Winner: Joe Yetter.

Money

Winner: Rep. Cliff Bentz. None of incumbent Rep. Bentz's Republican challengers have raised any money. Democrat Joe Yetter raised $12,000 total primarily from loans.

Congressional District 3

Total Facebook Likes

Winner: Rep. Earl Blumenauer. Rep. Blumenauer is the only candidate with a public Facebook page.

Money

Winner: Rep. Earl Blumenauer.

Republican Joanna Harbour's funds are sourced entirely from individual contributions.

Congressional District 4

Total Facebook Likes

Dem. Winner: BOLI Commissioner Val Hoyle.

Money

Dem. Winner: BOLI Commissioner Val Hoyle. War hero Alek Skarlatos has raised more funds than any Democrat in a field led by statewide elected official Commissioner Hoyle.

Congressional District 5

Republicans

Total Facebook Likes

GOP Winner: Former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

Money

GOP Winner: Former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Mayor Chavez-DeRemer has raised more than all other GOP candidates. While her title Itemized and Unitemized Contributions are lower than Crumpacker's, she has raised additional funds from committees, loans, and her own funds. Her Unitemized Contributions are more than all of her opponents combined, while Crumpacker's Itemized Contributions are more than all other candidates combined.

Democrats

Total Facebook Likes

Winner: Former Santa Clara City, CA City Councilor Jamie McLeod-Skinner.

Money

Dem. Itemized Contribution Winner: Rep. Kurt Schrader.

Dem. Unitemized Contribution Winner: Former Santa Clara, CA City Councilor Jamie McLeod-Skinner.

Congressional District 6

Republicans

Total Facebook Likes

Winner: Former Salem City Councilor Amy Ryan Courser.

Money

Itemized Contribution Winner: Mike Erickson.

Unitemized Contribution Winner: Former Salem City Councilor Amy Ryan Courser.

Democrats

Total Facebook Likes

Winner: Former Multnomah County Commissioner Loretta Smith.

Money

Itemized Contribution Winner: Carrick Flynn.

Unitemized Contribution Winner: Rep. Andrea Salinas.

Appeals Court Position #3

Total Facebook Likes

Winner: Former Marion County Circuit Court Judge Vance Day.

Total Twitter Followers

Winner: Former Marion County Circuit Court Judge Vance Day.

Money

Winner: Former Marion County Circuit Court Judge Vance Day. Incumbent Appeals Court Judge Ortega has raised more total than former Marion County Circuit Court Judget Day, but Judge Day has raised more money in small donations.

Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor and Industries

Total Facebook Likes

Winner: Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla.

Total Twitter Followers

Winner: Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla.

Money

Winner: Christina Stephenson. Stephenson has raised more small donations than all other candidates combined.

*You can't make this stuff up: "Analysts suggest that if each of Oregon’s local GOP organizations solicits as few as 950 individual contributions for William Barlow for U.S. Senate in the total amount of $237 (about 1/12 the maximum individual contribution limit) Senator Wyden would lose his commanding lead." - Actual quote from email to County GOP Chairs, William Barlow, 9/23/2021. This candidate raised $0 according to the Federal Elections Commission.

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