Buy Beaver State Confidential: A Citizen's Guide to Oregon Government!
Alex McHaddad, November 4, 2018
Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives in 2010, and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has long sought to reclaim the Speaker's gavel. In 2018, Democrats appear to finally have a shot at taking the House.
Republicans fair poorly in these counts, with higher primary turnout in 145 Districts and a voter registration advantage in 13 others.
The popularity of several blue state GOP Governors, including Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, Larry Hogan in Maryland, and Phil Scott in Vermont, makes the primary participation model less reliable for predicting gubernatorial contests. Victory in most contests, however, will likely correlate with primary turnout.
Despite their problematic house map, Republicans are likely to gain seats in the US Senate. 35 seats are up for election, including special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi. The later state is holding a jungle primary on election day in which the candidate with more than 50% automatically takes the seat; without such a victory, the top 2 candidates will face each other in a runoff. Maine Senator Angus King, a non-affiliated candidate who caucuses with Senate Democrats, is running against nominated candidates from the two major parties. In 4 additional states, only one major party held a primary, and no primaries were held in New York.