In Oregon, the Party that sees higher participation in its Primary Election usually wins the seat that it seeks in the General Election. Since 2004, only 10 Senators have won General Elections following primaries where their opponent's Party saw higher Primary Election turnout. Only 40 Representatives have won such a victory since 2004, equivalent to just over 7% of all House elections during this time period.

The differences in primary votes that have been overcome is used to calculate a separate margin of error for the House and Senate.

One District had no Republican file, so it is a no-contest Democratic District. There is one Democratic candidate in every District, so there are no Republican no-contest Districts. Nine Democratic primaries saw primary outside the margin of error, versus two for Republicans. Three Democratic Districts are toss-ups within the margin of error, versus one for Republicans (Senator Kim Thatcher). If Republicans win all three seats, the Senate GOP Caucus grows to 12 (and potentially up to 14 members if two independent Senators return to participating in the Republican Caucus). If Democrats win all 13 seats, the Democratic Caucus remains at 18 seats, opposite ten Republicans and two independents.

Three Districts had no Republican file, so they are no-contest Democratic Districts. There are six no-contest Districts. Nine Democratic primaries saw primary outside the margin of error, versus two for Republicans. Two Democratic Districts are toss-ups within the margin of error, versus four for Republicans. Republicans Could win up to 25 seats, plus two Democratic tossups, to grow their Caucus to 27 seats. Democrats could win up to 35 seats, plus 4 Republican tossups, to grow their supermajority to 39 seats.

Oregon has a new Congressional District carved from the bones of the old 5th District. The new 5th and 6th Districts both saw higher Democratic turnout. Political analysts rate the re-envisioned CD5 as a tossup primarily due to the primary win of a progressive Democrat in a District that has long been represented by a moderate Democrat. Over the past several decades, primary has been destiny for Oregon Congressional Districts, so there is no margin of error for this purpose

Nearly 150,000 more people voted in the Democratic Primary for US Senate than the Republican Primary. This is a safe election for Republicans this fall.

The Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor and Industries is elected in a statewide nonpartisan primary. No candidate received a majority of the votes, so the two highest performing candidates, former State Rep. Cheri Helt and Christina Stephenson, will face off in November. While the race was nonpartisan, Democrats and Republicans both ran, and the breakdown of votes received by Democratic versus Republican candidates shows a clear advantage for a Democrat.

The moment you've been waiting for... Ordinarily, the overwhelming turnout deficit in favor of Democrats would signal another Republican loss. However, the entrance of a well-funded Democrat running as a nonaffiliated candidate this fall turns the race into a tossup that has potential to turn the race in favor of Rep. Christine Drazan.