2020 Presidential Election Data

Presidential Election Turnout

In 2016, I predicted that states would vote for the Presidential candidate whose party saw higher primary turnout. This map assigned approximately 280 electoral votes to Donald Trump, even without Colorado and South Dakota assigned to the map (neither state held primaries). The math will likely change in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak. As of 5/14/20, Democratic Primary Participation was higher in 25 states, Republican turnout was higher in 8 states, and 10 states will hold only one primary.

GOP, 3/17

Republican turnout exceeded Democratic turnout in the following states:

  • Alabama (9)
  • Arkansas (6)
  • Georgia (16)
  • Idaho (4)
  • Indiana (11)
  • Montana (3)
  • Nebraska (5)
  • Utah (6)
  • TOTAL Electoral Votes: 60

Dem, 3/17

Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in the following states:

  • California (55)
  • Colorado (9)
  • Florida (29)
  • Illinois (20)
  • Iowa (6)
  • Maine (4)
  • Maryland (10)
  • Massachusetts (11)
  • Michigan (16)
  • Minnesota (10)
  • Missouri (10)
  • Mississippi (6)
  • New Hampshire (4)
  • New Mexico (5)
  • North Carolina (15)
  • Ohio (18)
  • Oklahoma (7)
  • Oregon (7)
  • Pennsylvania (20)
  • Rhode Island (4)
  • Tennessee (11)
  • Texas (38)
  • Vermont (3)
  • Washington (12)
  • Wisconsin (10)
  • TOTAL ELECTORAL Votes: 340

ND, 3/17

A primary was only held by the Democratic Party in the following states:

  • Alaska (3)
  • Hawaii (4)
  • Maine (4)
  • Minnesota (10)
  • Nevada (6)
  • New York (29)
  • North Dakota (3)
  • South Carolina (9)
  • Virginia (13)
  • Wyoming (3)
  • TOTAL ELECTORAL VOTES: 84

2016 Primary Election Turnout

Republicans

  • States: 27
  • Electoral Votes: 278

Democrats

  • States: 22
  • Electoral Votes: 248

No Data

  • States: 2
  • Electoral Votes: 12

2016 General Election Results

Republicans

  • States: 30
  • Electoral Votes: 304

Democrats

  • States: 21
  • Electoral Votes: 227